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The severe storm season so far this year compared with past years:<br>
Fairly quiet start to the season:<br>
<a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/monthlytornstats.html">http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/monthlytornstats.html</a><br>
<br>
All that started to change last week.&nbsp; Very active week:<br>
<br>
Reports: Monday through Monday<br>
<a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040517_rpts.html">http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040517_rpts.html</a><br>
<a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040518_rpts.html">http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040518_rpts.html</a><br>
<a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040519_rpts.html">http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040519_rpts.html</a><br>
<a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040520_rpts.html">http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040520_rpts.html</a><br>
<a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040521_rpts.html">http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040521_rpts.html</a><br>
<a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040522_rpts.html">http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040522_rpts.html</a><br>
<a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040523_rpts.html">http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040523_rpts.html</a><br>
<a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040524_rpts.html">http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040524_rpts.html</a><br>
<br>
How bad was it?&nbsp; Two deadly tornadoes in the last 4 days:<br>
<a
 href="http://www.usatoday.com/weather/gallery/2004/05-24-tornadoes/control.htm">http://www.usatoday.com/weather/gallery/2004/05-24-tornadoes/control.htm</a><br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ejustin/20040525/severe/HallamDamageAssessment.txt">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~justin/20040525/severe/HallamDamageAssessment.txt</a><br>
<br>
Synoptic pattern:<br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?h500+/-168//">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?h500+/-168//</a><br>
Notice how stationary the long wave pattern has been.&nbsp; Ejected
short waves causing prelonged period of severe weather outbreaks in the
plains.<br>
Pattern is changing though.<br>
&nbsp;<br>
Focus on Saturday and Monday<br>
<br>
Saturday:<br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?/home/disk/user_www/justin/20040525/garp_gifs/saturday_loop+all">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?/home/disk/user_www/justin/20040525/garp_gifs/saturday_loop+all</a><br>
<br>
Notice the intense dry line and very high dew points:<br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ejustin/20040525/garp_gifs/2004052212_zoom.gif">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~justin/20040525/garp_gifs/2004052212_zoom.gif</a><br>
<br>
Cross section of theta, theta-e and winds:<br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ejustin/20040525/garp_gifs/2004052300EtaCX.gif">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~justin/20040525/garp_gifs/2004052300EtaCX.gif</a><br>
<br>
How did the SPC do?<br>
Overall outlook: <a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ejustin/20040525/severe/2200severe_fcsts/day1otlk_20040522_1200_prt.gif">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~justin/20040525/severe/2200severe_fcsts/day1otlk_20040522_1200_prt.gif</a><br>
<br>
Tornado:<br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ejustin/20040525/severe/2200severe_fcsts/day1probotlk_20040522_1200_torn_prt.gif">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~justin/20040525/severe/2200severe_fcsts/day1probotlk_20040522_1200_torn_prt.gif</a><br>
<br>
Hail:<br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ejustin/20040525/severe/2200severe_fcsts/day1probotlk_20040522_1200_hail_prt.gif">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~justin/20040525/severe/2200severe_fcsts/day1probotlk_20040522_1200_hail_prt.gif</a><br>
<br>
Straight Line Wind:<br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ejustin/20040525/severe/2200severe_fcsts/day1probotlk_20040522_1200_wind_prt.gif">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~justin/20040525/severe/2200severe_fcsts/day1probotlk_20040522_1200_wind_prt.gif</a><br>
<br>
Overall outlook seems somewhat at odds to probabalistic outlooks but
quite a reasonable forecast all the same.&nbsp; Earlier forecast had
the action too far north.<br>
<br>
Soundings:<br>
<a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html">
http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html</a><br>
<a href="http://www-frd.fsl.noaa.gov/mab/soundings/java/">
http://www-frd.fsl.noaa.gov/mab/soundings/java/</a><br>
<a
 href="http://www-frd.fsl.noaa.gov/mab/soundings/java/plot_soundings.cgi?airport=OAX,TOP,FWD,AMA,DDC&amp;n_hrs=3.0&amp;startSecs=1085270400&amp;endSecs=1085281200&amp;data_source=RAOB">http://www-frd.fsl.noaa.gov/mab/soundings/java/plot_soundings.cgi?airport=OAX,TOP,FWD,AMA,DDC&amp;n_hrs=3.0&amp;startSecs=1085270400&amp;endSecs=1085281200&amp;data_source=RAOB</a><br>
OAX,TOP,FWD,AMA,DDC<br>
<br>
Yesterday (video - inside a tornado - coming attraction):<br>
SPC really went for it in their analysis last night.<br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ejustin/20040525/severe/2500severe_fcsts/2500outlook.gif">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~justin/20040525/severe/2500severe_fcsts/2500outlook.gif</a><br>
<br>
Severe weather was already occuring at time this forecast was issued:<br>
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~justin/20040525/severe/2500severe_fcsts/2500WatchWarn.gif<br>
<br>
Probabalistic forecasts were some of the highest I've ever seen:<br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ejustin/20040525/severe/2500severe_fcsts/2500_0100_torn.gif">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~justin/20040525/severe/2500severe_fcsts/2500_0100_torn.gif</a><br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ejustin/20040525/severe/2500severe_fcsts/2500_0100_hail.gif">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~justin/20040525/severe/2500severe_fcsts/2500_0100_hail.gif</a><br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ejustin/20040525/severe/2500severe_fcsts/2500_0100_wind.gif">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~justin/20040525/severe/2500severe_fcsts/2500_0100_wind.gif</a><br>
<br>
Took a look at the radar and it was clear why this was the case:<br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ejustin/20040525/severe/2500severe_fcsts/DesMoines20040525_0158.bmp">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~justin/20040525/severe/2500severe_fcsts/DesMoines20040525_0158.bmp</a><br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ejustin/20040525/severe/2500severe_fcsts/KansasCity20040525_0158.bmp">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~justin/20040525/severe/2500severe_fcsts/KansasCity20040525_0158.bmp</a><br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ejustin/20040525/severe/2500severe_fcsts/SaintLouis20040525_0158.bmp">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~justin/20040525/severe/2500severe_fcsts/SaintLouis20040525_0158.bmp</a><br>
<br>
Kansas City ONE HOUR rainfall:<br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ejustin/20040525/severe/2500severe_fcsts/KansasCity20040525_0158_1hr_rain.bmp">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~justin/20040525/severe/2500severe_fcsts/KansasCity20040525_0158_1hr_rain.bmp</a><br>
<br>
Presence of hail is probably exaggerating the rain rate somewhat though.<br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_east+2004052504/24h/0.5h">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_east+2004052504/24h/0.5h</a><br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_central_enhanced+2004052504/24h/0.5h">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_central_enhanced+2004052504/24h/0.5h</a><br>
<br>
Mention also the heavy rains over the Dominican Repuplic and Haiti<br>
<br>
Soundings (probably wont have time for these):<br>
<a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html">http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html</a><br>
<br>
The Northwest this week:<br>
Strong onshore push on Tuesday did yield a period of strong (by NW
standards) convection.&nbsp; Marine air rapidly invaded on Tueday night
and deepened giving a couple of much cooler days.&nbsp; MOS did very
badly with this.<br>
Marine layer exhibited some really interesting features:<br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis1km+2004052005/30h/0.25h">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis1km+2004052005/30h/0.25h</a><br>
<br>
Spokane tornado:<br>
<a href="http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Spokane/outreach/storms/gegtornado.htm">http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Spokane/outreach/storms/gegtornado.htm</a><br>
<br>
The forecast:<br>
Tomorrow: 85F and sunny.&nbsp; Not a hint of rain anywhere.<br>
<a
 href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+12">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+12</a><br>
<a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/gfsinit.html">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/gfsinit.html</a><br>
<br>
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