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Western Washington

FXUS66 KSEW 272254

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
254 PM PST Sat Nov 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Rain continues to move into the are this afternoon.
Area rivers will begin to rise through the rest of the day and are
expected to crest Sunday before slowly receding. The next frontal
system is expected to make its way through the area Tuesday into
Wednesday. Although it will be another warm system it is not
expected to be as strong as the one currently moving through. We
are expecting the Western Washington area to experience 
relatively drier conditions for the second half of next week. 


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...Moderate to heavy rain
continues to make its way into the area this afternoon. As of 3 PM
we are starting to see rivers respond to the rainfall. They will
continue to rise throughout the day with crests expected to occur
Sunday. During the last 24 hours or so forecasted precipitation
amounts have not really changed in terms of amounts but rather in
placement. The most recent forecasts have rain a little more
distributed over the Olympics and North/Central Cascades. As a
result some of the forecasted river crests have come down a bit.
That said flooding is still expected, see the hydrology section
below for more details. Moreover, as one may suspect with the
added rain today we are still at risk of landslides throughout the
area. This threat will likely continue through the rest of the
weekend and at least into a portion of Monday. 

Some lingering showers from the weekend system as well as some
showers from a weak front moving through are expected on Monday.
These will all be light enough that area rivers will continue to

The next frontal system will begin to move through the area
Tuesday. This will bring another round of widespread rain and high
snow levels. Models are still in agreement that the bulk the
moisture from this system will be to our north. And that
precipitation totals will be significantly less than what we are
seeing this weekend. This system will slowly move out of the area


a frontal system will continue to make its way through the area
Wednesday. Rain will be tapering off later in the day. And we
could see a mostly dry Thursday as a ridge moves in. Friday and
into next weekend look unsettled as some weak fronts as well as
some short waves move through the area. Snow levels are expected
to drop this later half of the week so the mountains could see
some snow.



.AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft tonight and Sunday. A warm front 
will move inland tonight. A trailing cold front will move through
the area on Sunday. The air mass will be moist and stable with 
widespread low clouds. 

KSEA...Low clouds should be prevalent although ceilings will be
VFR at times this afternoon and again later tonight. Southeast 
wind around 10 knots will become south 10-20 knots with higher 
gusts tonight. 16


.MARINE...A vigorous frontal system will move through the area
tonight and Sunday. Gales over the Coastal Waters, East Entrance 
Strait of Juan de Fuca and Northern Inland Waters should ease 
late this afternoon. Another round of gales are possible for parts
of the area later tonight as the trailing cold nears.

Winds will ease later Sunday with a break in between systems for
Monday. A second frontal system will likely bring another round of
small craft advisory strength winds to most waters on Tuesday. 
Winds will be lighter Wednesday and Thursday with weak onshore 
flow. 16


.HYDROLOGY...A wet and warm frontal system will continue to bring 
rain to the area tonight through at least Sunday, possibly into 
early Monday. As such, river flooding will remain an issue into the 
start of the new week. Rivers flowing out of the Olympics and the 
central and northern Cascades will be of particular concern. A flood 
watch remains in effect. The extent of expected river flooding 
varies throughout the region with minor to major flooding on some of 
the rivers. Current forecast remains on track for most rivers to 
crest Sunday, however, the Skagit River at Mount Vernon will likely 
not see a crest until early Monday morning. 

A second frontal system will potentially affect the region Tuesday 
into Wednesday although confidence is lower with this system. 
Ensembles suggest the most likely scenario is for the bulk of the 
moisture to be aimed north of the area. However, we will have to see 
how well the rivers recede from the weekend system to have a better 
idea on how they will respond to additional rainfall come mid week. 



WA...Flood Watch until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Bellevue and 
     Vicinity-Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties-Cascades 
     of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-East Puget Sound Lowlands-
     Everett and Vicinity-Seattle and Vicinity-Western Skagit 
     County-Western Whatcom County.

     Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Hood Canal Area-Lower 
     Chehalis Valley Area-Olympics.

     Flood Watch from 10 PM PST this evening through Sunday afternoon 
     for Admiralty Inlet Area-Central Coast-Eastern Strait of 
     Juan de Fuca-North Coast-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters 
     From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal 
     Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters 
     From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal 
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm.

     Gale Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal Waters 
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal 
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal 
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 
     Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
     Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters 
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal 
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for East 
     Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland 
     Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 5 AM PST Sunday for 
     Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De 
     Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for Central U.S. 
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters 
     Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Admiralty 
     Inlet-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Sunday for 
     Puget Sound and Hood Canal.




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Southwestern Washington and Western Oregon

FXUS66 KPQR 272229

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
228 PM PST Sat Nov 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A warm front will lift northward into southwest
Washington this evening, bringing periods of rain for locations to
the north of Salem. Most locations should see a break from rain
tonight into tomorrow morning before an upper trough nudges a
dissipating atmospheric river into northwest Oregon Sunday night into
Monday. Strong but flat upper ridging over the western United States
will keep the storm track north of us most of next week, but systems
may occasionally come close enough to clip northern zones with light


.SHORT TERM...This evening through Monday night...A west-east
oriented warm front was draped across the central Willamette Valley
early Saturday afternoon with observed surface temperatures in the
upper 50s to 60 degrees in the southern and central valley. This
front will continue to gradually lift northward this evening,
bringing the relatively warmer airmass all the way to southwest
Washington. In addition to the mild temperatures tonight and
tomorrow, breezy southerly winds are expected to the south of the
warm front, strongest over the central Willamette Valley where
sustained wind speeds should generally range between 10-20 mph. Rain
chances tonight into Sunday are mainly limited to locations along and
north of the aforementioned warm front, which means most locations
can expect a break from rain tonight (aside from the Willapa Hills
and south WA Cascades).

This break will be short-lived according to the latest suite of model
guidance, which continues to suggest a fast-moving upper trough from
the Pacific will push an ongoing atmospheric river out of western
Washington and into northwest Oregon Sunday night into Monday. That
said, moisture transport will be on the decrease and the atmospheric
river will be weakening as it swings southward across the forecast
area. Models and their ensembles appear to be honing in on 0.25-0.50
inches of rain for the central/northern Willamette Valley and Clark
County, highest to the north. The southern valley should only see
0.05-0.20 inches. The hardest hit areas will be the south WA/north OR
coast, Willapa Hills, and the south WA Cascades/foothills. These
areas should see closer to 1-2 inches of rain with amounts as high as
3 inches possible. The NBM 4.1 is showing a 20-40 percent chance for
rain amounts greater than 2 inches, but only 10-15 percent for
amounts greater than 3 inches. Fortunately, these rain amounts are
not high enough to warrant much concern in regards to flooding
potential, especially since it will fall over a 24-30 hour period.
With the mild subtropical air in place, snow levels will remain well
above pass level into next week. Expect rain to taper off Monday
night as surface high pressure settles into the area. This setup will
also favor areas of fog Monday night into Tuesday morning. -TK


.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...The 12z WPC cluster analysis
is still showing very good agreement between models in regards to the
synoptic scale pattern, depicting a prolonged period of anomalously
high 500 mb heights over the western United States through at least
Friday. This is due to an upper level ridge that will be in place,
which will keep temperatures above normal and precipitation below
normal for this time of year. The main challenge with the long term
forecast is determining the probability of precipitation, which will
depend on how amplified the aforementioned ridge gets. If the ridge
flattens out over the area, then west-northwesterly flow would allow
for a series of weather systems to impact the area (mainly for
locations to the north of Salem). If the ridge amplifies enough to
keep the Pacific jet stream far enough to the north then most of the
forecast area would most likely wind up dry for several days, with
the exception of southwest WA which should see at least some rain
next week. Most ensemble members from the EMC's GEFS plumes for QPF
at Astoria show measurable rain on Tuesday as the tail end of a cold
front pushes through, albeit light amounts. The GEFS plumes for QPF
at Portland, Salem, and Eugene strongly favor dry weather Tuesday
through Friday, so expect rain to be mainly limited to southwest WA
and far northwest OR during that time.

There are some interesting developments in the far extended forecast
period, as more models are amplifying the ridge and starting to
retrograde it westward into the Pacific. This could potentially set
us up for a pattern change some time around next weekend, as this is
often the first step for colder air to come down from Alaska. This
would not likely happen until week 2, which is beyond our area of
focus, but regardless it is something to keep an eye on over the
coming days.  TK/Weagle


.AVIATION...00Z TAFs: Widespread MVFR or lower conditions early
this afternoon associated with a warm frontal boundary. Areas of
VFR were noted over the extreme southern interior lowlands. The
warm front will lift north tonight and Sunday. Expect minimal 
improvement in overall flight conditions through the evening
hours, especially across the north half of the area. Widespread 
IFR to low-end MVFR to prevail from through 06Z Sun. Coastal 
areas likely to remain IFR or lower through at least 18Z Sun. 
Inland areas south of KSLE should see increasing VFR mid to late
this evening. However, southern inland areas, such as KCVO, KS12
and KEUG stand a good chance of LIFR fog development overnight.
Expect predominant VFR Sun afternoon, except for southwest
Washington and the north Oregon coast where IFR to MVFR will
persist. Mountains will be frequently obscured through Sun
morning, but well into the afternoon over the south Washington
and north Oregon Cascades. 

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go 
online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR with brief periods of IFR at the
terminal early this afternoon. Do not expect much change through
the evening hours. A warm front over the terminal and vicinity 
early afternoon, gradually lifts north overnight. Would expect 
improvement to low-end VFR cigs by 08Z Sun. Low level wind shear 
(LLWS) possible in the area with relatively light southeast to 
east winds and 30kt near 1500 ft per model sounding. LLWS likely
through early evening. Weishaar


.MARINE...Wind gusts to 30 kt were noted over the north zones
early this afternoon. These gusts are associated with a warm
front situated over the Washington and north Oregon waters. The
front slowly migrates north tonight and Sunday. Gusts to 30 kt
will continue over the north zones through Sunday morning. A few
models indicate potential 35 kt gusts tonight over the north
zones, especially PZZ250, where a weak coastal jet may occur.
Wind speeds slowly diminish Sunday afternoon and finally fall
below small craft advisory thresholds late Sun afternoon or early
evening. Another warm front is expected to impact the north zones
Tue. Wind speeds and gusts with this system look to be a little
lower than the current warm front. 

Seas are currently hovering around 10 ft early this afternoon,
but there was a fairly substantial wind wave component. Seas will
remain near 10 ft at least through 18Z Sun and likely until mid-
afternoon. Wave heights subside Sun night through Monday, but are
forecast to climb above 10 ft over the north zones Tue night and
Wed. Weishaar


PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for coastal waters 
     from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 nm.




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Southeastern Washington and Northeastern Oregon

FXUS66 KPDT 272247

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
247 PM PST Sat Nov 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...Rest of today through Monday night...Light echo on 
radar this afternoon across northern Oregon and Washington. 
Webcams and surface observations confirm light rain is falling 
along the Cascade crest with even lighter amounts across the 
eastern slopes. Echo across the northern portion of the Columbia 
Basin and foothills of the northern Blues is primarily virga at 
this point, though as a warm front continues to lift north this 
afternoon and evening, expecting light precipitation to develop. 
The Basin will likely only see light amounts, less than a tenth of
an inch, though the northern Blues may see more in the quarter to
half inch range with isolated amounts of three quarters of an 
inch possible. Since the warm front will be the main focusing 
mechanism for precipitation, expecting the precipitation to come 
to a fairly quick end tonight even for the northern Blues since 
the flow aloft will not be ideal for upslope orographic 
enhancement. High snow levels will keep precipitation as rain for 
all but the highest peaks. Otherwise, breezy conditions will 
continue through the Grande Ronde Valley this afternoon through 
much of the period as decent surface pressure gradients support 
southerly winds. Low temperatures tonight will be unseasonably 
warm in the mid and upper 40s with a few spots potentially 
reaching daily records.

In the wake of the warm front, with the upper-level ridge
continuing to build poleward, afternoon highs on Sunday will be 
unseasonably warm in the low to mid 60s. These highs will have the
potential to reach or exceed daily records for some climate sites
in the Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Moreover, dry 
conditions are forecast Sunday for all but the Washington 
Cascades as the ridge directs the atmospheric river north.

Guidance suggests a shortwave trough will enter the PacNW from 
the eastern Pacific Monday morning through the afternoon. This will
flatten the ridge, usher in somewhat cooler air, and provide our 
next chances for precipitation. However, due to its quick-moving 
nature and limited moisture support, expecting the majority of the
impacts to be confined to the mountains. Precipitation totals of
generally less than a tenth of an inch for the Basin and lower
elevations are forecast, while the Blues and Cascades may see a
quarter inch. Again, most of this precipitation will be rain
outside of the higher peaks. As this wave exits the region to the
east, drier conditions return as the upper-level ridge will 
rebuild across the PacNW Monday night. Plunkett/86

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Models continue to have 
significant disagreements through the long term period. Not only 
that, model ensembles show considerable spread between it's members 
and the deterministic model solutions are tending to be outliers 
within their respective ensembles. So, while the overall pattern of 
having some form of ridging over the area with warm temperatures 
during the long term period seems likely, overall confidence in the 
exact details is low.

Tuesday starts out with reasonable agreement in having a modest 
ridge offshore with our area on the eastern edge with a 
northwesterly flow overhead. The northwest flow into the Cascades 
will lead to a chance of rain mainly in the Washington Cascades with 
snow levels rising from 5000 feet to 8000 feet during the day. Rain 
amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch. Temperatures will be 
warm and mainly in the upper 40s to mid 50s. 

By Wednesday, the models are starting to deviate, with the ECMWF and 
Canadian keeping the ridge axis offshore while the GFS moves the 
ridge axis to the coastline. All models are showing a wave moving 
over the ridge into our area. There will be a chance of rain in the 
Cascades and the eastern Oregon mountains and a slight chance in the 
Washington Blue Mountain Foothills. Snow levels will remain at 7000-
9000 feet so only rain is expected away from the highest peaks. 
Rain amounts will be just a few hundredths of an inch and only the 
Washington Cascade crest will have as much as a tenth of an inch. As 
the wave passes through in the afternoon, pressure gradients will 
tighten and breezy winds are expected in the Columbia Basin. 
Wednesday will also be the warmest day in the long term period with 
highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. 

On Thursday, models all have a trough in the Gulf of Alaska while 
they have very different ridge axis locations. The ECMWF is several 
hundred miles offshore, the Canadian is just off the coast and the 
GFS is along the OR/ID border. The ECMWF and Canadian keep a 
northwest flow over the area while the GFS is flatter and more 
westerly. This appears to be a break in the precipitation with just 
a slight chance of rain along the Washington Cascade crest with 
barely measurable amounts. Temperatures drop a couple of degrees 
back to the 50s. 

Friday and Saturday, models handle the trough from the Gulf of 
Alaska very differently. The ECMWF has a ridge reforming well 
offshore and sends the trough through our area on Saturday. The GFS 
reforms the ridge as well but much closer to the coast resulting in 
a trough that is weaker, further north and about 6 hours later than 
the ECMWF. The Canadian builds the ridge directly overhead and the 
trough weakens as it moves into northern British Columbia. Tended 
towards the ECMWF with a dry Friday then a chance of rain in the 
mountains late Friday night and Saturday and a slight chance in the 
Yakima and Kittitas Valleys and Blue Mountain Foothills. Snow levels 
will be dropping to around 4000 feet and an inch or two of snow is 
possible in the higher mountains. Temperatures will be dropping back 
to the 40s and lower 50s both days. Perry/83


.AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions are expected for most TAF 
sites over the next 24 hours except for DLS where MVFR ceilings may 
be possible as ceilings lower with incoming rain this afternoon. 
Rain is possible for both DLS and YKM late this afternoon and 
evening with YKM possibly having MVFR visibilities this evening 
before the rain ends. Have also added VCSH with tempos of -RA late 
this evening to other TAF sites. Ceilings lower across all sites 
today as cloud deck drops to around 5000 feet. Ceilings will raise 
to 15000 feet and above after 06Z-12. Most TAF sites except YKM and 
DLS will have south to southwest winds around 10-12 kts this evening 
with BDN gusting to 20 kts. PSC, ALW and PDT will have westerly 
winds at 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts after 20Z tomorrow. Perry/83


PDT  47  62  40  53 /  20   0   0  30 
ALW  49  64  45  55 /  30   0  10  30 
PSC  49  62  47  56 /  20   0   0  20 
YKM  42  59  40  56 /  50  10  10  30 
HRI  47  60  44  56 /  20   0   0  20 
ELN  40  58  41  54 /  70  20  20  30 
RDM  45  63  35  55 /  10   0   0  10 
LGD  42  55  37  51 /  20   0   0  20 
GCD  42  62  35  55 /   0   0   0  10 
DLS  48  61  47  57 /  70   0  20  50 





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Northeastern Washington and Northern Idaho

FXUS66 KOTX 280007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
407 PM PST Sat Nov 27 2021

Sunday will be mild and locally windy as the north Cascades 
receive heavy rain along the crest. Near record warm temperatures 
are expected for places in north Idaho and eastern Washington with
highs well into the 50s. The passage of a cold front will bring 
rain and more seasonal temperatures for Monday. Wednesday has the 
potential to be another windy day.



Tonight into Sunday: Our wet and windy November continues. An
atmospheric river of moderate to strong intensity (measured by
IVT) will move into northwest Washington and southern British 
Columbia this evening. The heaviest rain tonight into Sunday will
be focused across north of the Canadian border and along the west
slopes of the northern Cascades. East of the Cascades, our best
shot of widepsread precipitation will be this evening with a
passing warm front. Overnight temperatures will be unseasonably
mild with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s with some of the
warmest low temps around Ritzville, Pomeroy, Pullman, and Lewiston
where south winds of 10 to 20 mph will blow overnight. Snow levels
will rise into the 8000 to 10,000 ft range.

Mild morning temperatures will provide a springboard for near
record warmth Sunday afternoon. Much of the Inland Northwest will
top out in the 50s with places like Lewiston, Pomeroy, Kamiah, and
Othello near 60. Southwest winds gusting in the 30 to 40 mph range
are expected around Ritzville, Washtucna, Davenport, and Airway
Heights from mid day to late afternoon. As eastern Washington and
north Idaho experience warm and windy weather, the north Cascades
will continue to receive periods of moderate to heavy rain through
the day Sunday. Our plume of deep Pacific moisture will finally
shear southward Sunday night into Monday, but not before dumping
enough rain over western portions of Chelan and Okanogan counties
to raise levels on creeks and small streams. Soggy conditions in
the steep terrain will also heighten the potential for rock slides
especially near areas burned over the summer. A Flood Watch is in
effect for western parts of Chelan and Okanogan counties through
Monday evening.

Monday: Remnants of our weekend atmospheric river will be pushed
south across the Inland Northwest on Monday by a cold front. Our
temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler Monday than Sunday,
but still be above average for late November. Snow levels will be
high enough Monday that all but the highest peaks in northeast
Washington and north Idaho will receive rain. /GKoch

Tuesday through Thursday: Another atmospheric river takes aim at 
the PNW, this time focusing on the Washington and British Columbia
coasts. Consensus in the most recent model runs has not really
increased, but we do know that this will not be a dry period for 
all of the forecast area. 

The biggest question is where the warm front sets up. If it 
follows the European ensemble mean, there will be light 
precipitation chances across much of the area (including lowlands)
whereas the GEFS keeps the precipitation to our northern zones.
Our current forecast has precip chances for the mountains and 
northern zones, and there is definitely potential for some rogue 
light rain showers. The area of precip chances will slowly push 
northward Tuesday and Wednesday before a cold front Wednesday 
night returns lesser chances (bc of downslope subsidence) 

This will also create an uptick in winds. Winds are expected to 
generally be breezy Tuesday through Thursday due to the strong 
pressure gradient from being sandwiched between a trough to our 
north and a ridge to our south... but the cold front passage 
Wednesday PM will likely help mix gusts as high as 35-40 mph down 
to the surface for the Spokane-Davenport-Ritzville area.

Precip type throughout the period is expected to remain mostly
rain except for some higher ridges and peaks which could see snow,
especially Tuesday.

Thursday night and Friday: Heading into the weekend, there might 
be another round of precipitation, but there is a large degree of 
uncertainty. RC


00Z TAFs: The passage of a moist warm front will produce areas of
reduced visibility with rain and low ceilings this evening into
the overnight. Airports in northeast Washington and north Idaho
like Spokane, Coeur d'Alene, Sandpoint, and Colville will
experience the most significant visibility and ceiling reductions
before post warm front winds provide sufficient mixing to scour
the low clouds and fog away. Low level wind shear has been
included in the Spokane, Coeur d'Alene and Pullman TAFs ahead and
along the warm front. Gusty southwest winds are expected to
surface from late morning into the afternoon Sunday with localized
gusts of 30kts or more around KGEG and smaller airports like
Davenport. /GKoch 


Spokane        45  56  44  49  39  48 /  80  10  20  40  10  10 
Coeur d'Alene  43  56  44  48  40  48 / 100  20  30  50  10  20 
Pullman        45  57  42  48  37  49 /  60  10  10  70  10  10 
Lewiston       47  62  44  52  40  54 /  40   0   0  30  10   0 
Colville       40  52  40  46  38  46 /  90  20  20  20  10  20 
Sandpoint      41  52  42  46  38  45 / 100  50  60  50  30  40 
Kellogg        42  54  43  46  39  47 / 100  10  60  80  30  30 
Moses Lake     44  58  45  54  38  51 /  40   0  10  20   0   0 
Wenatchee      42  57  43  52  39  51 /  70  20  10  20  10  20 
Omak           39  54  39  48  37  47 /  80  20  10  10  10  20 


WA...Flood Watch from 10 PM PST this evening through Monday evening 
     for Central Chelan County-Western Chelan County-Western 
     Okanogan County. 



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