[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Western Washington


533 
FXUS66 KSEW 270334
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
834 PM PDT Tue Oct 26 2021

.UPDATE...The only notable changes to the forecast this evening
were hydrology and marine related, which can be referenced in the
sections below. The remainder of the forecast is on track 
tonight.

An upper level trough continues over the BC Coast this evening ,
with evidence of a closed low embedded within just off the 
northern Coast. A frontal system associated with this closed low 
continues to push across the W WA this evening, with a plethora of
showers continuing in its vicinity. It also appears a subtle 
speed max embedded within the strong mid/upper level westerly 
flow is contributing to some enhancement in both coverage and 
intensity this evening. Pockets of locally heavy rainfall will be
the main threats tonight, as convective parameters do not really 
support a threat for thunderstorms. Activity should decrease in 
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning as ridging amplifies 
along the West Coast. This would normally be good news to those 
in the area who are waiting for a drier period, however, this 
will just help aim an upstream atmospheric river right towards 
the area, which is likely to begin to affect the area by the 
evening.

Previous discussion follows, and the aforementioned updated marine
and hydrology (aviation updated too).

Kovacik

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 PM PDT Tue Oct 26 2021/ 

.SYNOPSIS...Showery weather will decrease through Wednesday 
morning. Rain - potentially significant for some areas - will 
increase Wednesday afternoon and evening as an atmospheric river 
sets up over the region. Persistent rain over the region will 
continue through Thursday before easing Friday morning. Generally
dry and benign weather is expected for the weekend. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...Fairly widespread showers
this afternoon will begin to thin out out this evening. Showers 
will linger but remain mostly over the higher terrain into 
Wednesday morning. Snow levels will fluctuate dip to around 4500 
feet through midday Wednesday so the higher terrain should see 
several inches of new snow but the passes will have limited if any
impacts. The breezy conditions along the coast and interior north
of Everett will also ease tonight. 

The break in the active weather will be short-lived as rain
associated with an atmospheric river will begin to move into the
area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Ensemble runs continue to
highlight the most likely scenario for the heaviest precipitation,
over the southwest slopes of the Olympic Mountains as well as the
Cascades north of I-90. This more northerly emphasis is supported
by both the ECMWF and Canadian ensemble systems, as well as the
calibrated probabilistic output from the National Blend of Models
and WPC forecasts. While the GFS solutions have consistently 
locked onto a more south-oriented solution, this might be an issue
with under-dispersion rather than actual confidence in that 
forecast scenario. 

Accordingly, the forecast currently reflects 
the more northerly emphasis on higher amounts over the Olympics 
and North Cascades. The most likely mean-areal precipitation 
amounts Wednesday Evening through early Friday morning are: 2.7 
inches for the Olympic Mountains, 3.4 inches over the west slopes 
of the North Cascades, 3.2 inches over the west slopes of the 
Central Cascades and 2.1 inches over the west slopes of the South 
Cascades. There still remains uncertainty regarding the specific 
timing and location of the heaviest precipitation and there still 
could be shifts in the track and timing for the heavy moisture 
plume as it streams into the region. Nonetheless, we continue to 
expect rises on all area rivers and an increased threat of river 
flooding as a result. Please see the Hydrology section for more 
information. 

Snow levels will rise pretty quickly Wednesday night
to 8000-9000 feet as warm moist air streams into the area -
remaining well above 8000 feet through the period of heaviest
precipitation. Precipitation will diminish Friday as the plume of
deep moisture shifts south and east. The timing of this transition
remains uncertain and could affect the accumulations, especially
over the south Cascades. There is pretty uniform spread in the 
three ensemble systems, but there are enough members highlighting
the potential for wet conditions lingering into the afternoon -
that it is worth mentioning. Despite the timing uncertainty, the 
overall trend later Friday into early Saturday morning should be 
drier, with lingering showers behind the system as it moves out of
the area. 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Ensembles continue to 
show a drier trend for the weekend with some signal linger in some
of the forecasts over the southern portions of the area, most 
likely related to lingering precipitation associated with the 
system as it exits the region Saturday morning. Ensemble mean 
heights show a ridge settling over the Pacific Northwest Sunday - 
indicating pretty good agreement from the ECMWF,CMCE and GEFS 
systems. There are some members - roughly 25% - that show the 
potential for a system beginning to work into the Eastern Pacific 
that would bring some potential for precipitation again to the 
coast. More ensemble members pick up on this for Monday with the 
mean at least indicating some chance of precipitation for Western 
Washington Monday and Tuesday. 

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread rain showers continue this evening near 
all terminals, with generally MVFR ceilings found within the 
heavier rain and VFR elsewhere. Expect rain coverage to decrease 
overnight, with somewhat low confidence in how the ceilings will 
trend. Recent guidance is suggestive of a VFR dominant ceiling 
into Wednesday, but given residual lower level moisture and 
continued unsettled conditions, will maintain the trend of 
lowering to MVFR into Wednesday for now. Rain associated with an 
atmospheric river will bring ceilings down below VFR Wednesday 
evening/night. Winds still gusty out of the S around Puget Sound 
12-15kts with gusts 25-30kts, elsewhere winds are around 10kts. 
Winds will subside back down to around 10-12kts after midnight or 
so.

KSEA...Rain likely through midnight, with coverage becoming more
scattered thereafter. Ceilings may remain largely VFR but are
currently expected to drop to MVFR tonight into Wednesday. Winds
gusty through midnight S 12-15kts gusting to 25kts, becoming S
8-10kts.

Kovacik

&&

.MARINE...The only change to the marine forecast this evening was
to issue a small craft advisory for the Central and East Strait
based on current observations and near-term pressure gradients.
Expect these west winds down the Strait to subside towards
daybreak or a few hours before. Elsewhere, elevated winds over the
Coastal Waters and Puget Sound are still expected to ease
overnight into Wednesday, along with the swells (briefly).
Previous discussion follows:

Another system will stall over the area Wednesday night 
through Thursday night. This system will provide heavy rain at times 
which could reduce visibilities over the area waters including Puget 
Sound at times. High pressure building over the waters with low 
level offshore flow over the weekend.

Small craft advisory conditions over the waters today with winds 
easing tonight into Wednesday. Swell along the coast subsiding to 
around 10 feet tonight before building to 12 to 18 feet again 
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Seas are expected to ease to below 10 
feet by Friday as the system sinks south of the area and high 
pressure begins to build in. 

Kovacik/Kristell

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Did make an adjustment this evening: Recent
observations along the Skokomish River near Potlatch show the 
river flirting with moderate flood stage. Have adjusted the 
forecast such that moderate flooding is forecast this evening and 
through most of the overnight period before subsiding through the 
day Wednesday. The rest of the current hydrology forecast looks 
good and follows below.

An atmospheric river pattern will bring high snow 
levels and rain, heavy at times, Wednesday night through Thursday 
night. There is increasing confidence that the heaviest 
accumulations can be expected over the Olympic Mountains and 
Cascades - north of I-90. Even so there remains uncertainty with 
respect to exact timing, location and amounts which will effect 
the response on area rivers. 

Moderate flooding is possible on the Skokomish River in Mason 
County tonight before receding back to minor flood stage through 
Wednesday. It is expected to rise again to moderate levels 
Thursday in response to additional rainfall forecast to move into 
the area. In addition, other rivers will likely see significant 
rises, with a few reaching minor, or possibly moderate flood stage
Thursday night or Friday. 

The atmospheric river will sag south and east of the area Friday 
with hydrologically significant precipitation ending. Rivers will 
continue to run high on Friday then should recede over the 
weekend. 

Kovacik/Schneider

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night 
     for Admiralty Inlet Area-Bellevue and Vicinity-Cascades of 
     Snohomish and King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit 
     Counties-Central Coast-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Eastern 
     Strait of Juan de Fuca-Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-
     Lower Chehalis Valley Area-North Coast-Olympics-Seattle and 
     Vicinity-Western Skagit County-Western Strait of Juan De 
     Fuca-Western Whatcom County.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters 
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal 
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal 
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 
     10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape 
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S. 
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PDT Wednesday for Central U.S. 
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters 
     Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Southwestern Washington and Western Oregon


416 
FXUS66 KPQR 270445 AAA
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
945 PM PDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Updated aviation and short-term sections.

.SYNOPSIS...Decreasing showers tonight, with a brief lull in the
weather for Wed. But, rain returns Wed night and Thu. After that
front moves across the region Thu night, will see decreasing showers
on Fri. Becoming mostly dry this weekend, as high pressure builds
over the inland Pac NW. But, will turn bit cooler. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...Still have rather moist air
mass over the region late this evening, as a warm front lifts north
and eastward across Oregon/Washington. NOAA satellite imagery
shows an upper level disturbance exiting northwest Oregon to the
northeast. This has provided lift for rain showers through this
evening, but as it moves farther away from the area tonight we'll see
showers continue to gradually diminish in both coverage and
intensity. So, will maintain the trend for decreasing showers
overnight. Snow levels will remain well above the passes, running
5500 to 6000 ft, with 2 to 6 inches on higher elevations. 

Most of the main action will lift farther north tonight, leaving
northwest Oregon and southwest Washington in a somewhat mild air mass
in the wake of the warm front. Showers continue to decrease into
Wed, with highest chance of precipitation being north of the Columbia
River, and primarily over the higher terrain of the Cascades and
Willapa Hills. With main lift and precipitation areas shifted to the
north, many areas to south of Corvallis will likely see a dry day on
Wednesday, with mild south winds and temperatures into the lower 60s.
Several often-accurate high resolution models have trended towards
higher rain chances in the southern Willamette Valley, however, so
have kept a chance of rain in the mention for those areas.

But, another warm front will approach the region later Wed and Wed
night, with rain spreading back across the region at that time.
Models have been persistent that the primary lift and rainfall will
be over western Washington. But, should be close enough to see decent
rainfall over the north Oregon Coast Range and nearby coastal areas.
The parent low pressure area that stays well offshore will wrap
towards Vancouver Island Wed night and Thu. As such, the warm front
will lift northward, with most of the precipitation lifting much
farther northward. With this, it would leave the baroclinic zone
sitting off to our north/northwest, draped from Puget Sound back 
over the Olympics and then off to the southwest over the Pac. As 
such, would leave most of northwest Oregon in the dry mild air mass 
for Thu. With this trend, will see temperatures getting well into 
the 60s again on mild southerly winds. But, the baroclinic zone will 
sag back to the south/southeast later Thu and Thu night, with rain 
spreading from north to south across the region. Main rain would be 
in the evening to around/or just after midnight. Rather modest QPF 
likely, with 0.75 to 1.50 inches for the coast/coastal mtns, and 
less farther inland. But, could be more if this boundary moves
slower. Current timing would put the front shifting across the region
later Thu night, with transition to showers, with decreasing showers
Fri.   /Rockgardner

.LONG TERM...Friday night through Tuesday...The upper level trough
will dig farther into the Great Basin Fri night and Sat, with most of
the main shower potential ending Friday evening. Models still want to
bring another upper low across the region, but depending on model of
choice, could be over Oregon (as ECMWF) or over northern Calif (as
with NAM/GFS). So, with such uncertainty, can not completely
eliminate potential of showers. As such, will maintain some minor
chance for Sat and Sun, with highest chance (30-40 pct PoPs) for the
Cascades.  Surface pattern responding to his pattern, with increasing
offshore flow. Though gradients are not all that strong, will have to
watch, as could be locally breeze in the Gorge and perhaps along the
coast gaps. Again, will have to see how models work out differences
over next few runs. But, feel trend to drier and cooler weather later
this weekend into early next week is more likely.	    

&&

.AVIATION...06z TAFs: Cloudy but VFR conditions prevail across 
most of the forecast area this evening. The main exceptions are 
persistent mountain obscurations (which will likely persist 
through the night), as well as IFR/MVFR south of roughly a KSLE-
KONP line. IFR is most prevalent along/near the coast KONP 
southward. Little change in flying conditions expected overnight 
as occasional rain tapers to decreasing showers after 08z. VFR 
may become more widespread Wednesday as transient high pressure 
moves across the forecast area. South to southwest winds have
been blustery much of Tuesday - these winds are beginning to 
ease and that trend should continue overnight into early Wed.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go 
online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Primarily VFR with varying high cigs
through Wed. Occasional rain may lead to a brief period of MVFR 
through 09z, but cigs will most likely remain above 040. Showers
and moderate S-SW breezes will decrease thereafter.  Weagle

&&

.MARINE...Winds remain breezy across the coastal waters with
SW gusts to 25 kt still fairly widespread as of 9 PM this 
evening. Expect winds to ease later tonight and Wed morning as
transient high pressure moves across the waters. The next low
pressure system should cause S-SE winds to increase again by
late Wed afternoon. With pressure still fairly high over the
southern Oregon waters, the resulting pressure gradient may be
sufficient to yield marginal Gales despite the low being fairly 
weak as it moves into Vancouver Island late Wed night/early Thu.
The associated cold front is expected to move SE across the
coastal waters Thu/Thu night, causing a sharp shift to northerly
winds. These northerly winds may be quite gusty Friday as strong
high pressure builds into the NE Pacific and thermal low pressure
begins to extend northward along the southern Oregon coast.

Seas are expected to remain above 10 ft through Thursday, so the
SCA looks to be in good shape through Wed evening and may 
eventually need to be extended further in time. Swell associated
with a Gulf of Alaska low will likely arrive Wed morning, pushing
seas back upward into the mid teens Wednesday. Once this occurs,
seas will be slow to come down and may not subside below 10 ft
until Friday or Saturday.  Weagle

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for 
     coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for coastal waters
from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for Columbia 
     River Bar.

&&

$$

[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Southeastern Washington and Northeastern Oregon


933 
FXUS66 KPDT 270520 AAA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1020 PM PDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Updated Aviation Discussion

.EVENING UPDATE...Much of the Basin and central OR experiencing 
breezy winds this evening in light of a strong jet co-located over 
the forecast area. This jet is associated with a building ridge over 
the PacNW, which will transport plentiful moisture towards northern 
WA and BC. For us, rain chances will continue for the mountains, 
especially the Cascades and eastern slopes, while the rest of the 
CWA looks to be dry as high pressure builds overhead. Breezy 
conditions will prevail through at least Wednesday afternoon, before 
the axis of the ridge comes in and makes for light winds heading 
into Wednesday night. Next chance for area-wide precip likely 
Thursday, when a weak shortwave trailing the ridge looks to move 
through the area. 

Bumped up the winds across the Basin and central OR through
Wednesday morning, and scaled back PoPs towards exclusively the 
mountains, otherwise forecast remains on track. 74

AVIATION...06z TAFs...Winds will fluctuate until around 22Z with
sustained winds around 8-15 kts and occasional gusts to 20-25 kts from
the WSW (NW at DLS).  After 22Z, winds will decrease to 10 kts or
less.  VFR conditions will continue at the terminal airports with variable
bases between 5-15k feet.  Skies will become OVC after 22Z with CIGS
between 5-10k feet.  Wister/85

&& 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 228 PM PDT Tue Oct 26 2021/ 

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...Weak ridging is 
building across the forecast area as the longwave trough axis 
continues to move east into the Rockies. A weak shortwave embedded 
in the ridge is currently traversing the Inland Northwest with a 
band of light showers across the Basin and Blues. As the shortwave 
works east this evening and overnight, activity will largely 
diminish for the lower elevations, though some upslope showers are 
expected to continue for the Blues and Wallowas with some spillover 
showers also possible for the eastern slopes of the Cascades. All 
but the high peaks will see rain. 

Heading into Wednesday morning, continued drying is expected with 
just a few upslope showers for the Blues/Wallowas and some spillover 
for the eastern slopes of the Cascades. A weak atmospheric river 
will direct moisture into the PacNW tomorrow evening into Thursday 
morning, focused primarily on the northern half of our forecast 
area. The result will be slight chances of precipitation for the 
Basin, with better chances for the Blues and Wallowas. The eastern 
slopes of the Cascades, and the Cascade crest, will see more 
significant precipitation.

Thursday afternoon will see drier, and significantly warmer, 
conditions outside of the Cascades, though another round of 
precipitation will return overnight into Friday morning as a 
shortwave trough and cold front approach. 

Winds will remain breezy for much of the period, but currently look 
to remain below advisory criteria. Plunkett/86

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...Sensible weather concerns
through the extended period will revolve around the interaction of
a high amplitude ridge over the region and two weakening upper
low features late Friday/early Saturday and on Monday. There is
some uncertainty in progression of the synoptic pattern, however 
general consensus across ensemble and deterministic guidance is 
for below normal temperatures, light to locally breezy winds, and 
for light precipitation accumulations with either system.

Guidance is in good agreement an exiting upper level trough and 
surface cold front will continue to bring rain chances through
early Friday across the forecast area. Rain and high mountain snow
chances will diminish across the forecast through the late
afternoon and evening Friday as an upper ridge in the eastern
Pacific amplifies and approaches the PacNW. As the upper ridge
approaches late Friday, a trailing shortwave trough ahead of it
will become a weak closed low that will ride under the ridge early
Saturday through early Sunday. That said, ensemble guidance is in
some disagreement of the path that the upper closed low will take.
The GFS ensemble mean guidance takes a path through northern CA 
while the ECMWF ensemble mean is through Oregon. Further though,
investigating 500mb ensemble member clusters and phase space 
shows that some members of the ECMWF have a similar path as it's
GFS ensemble members. Though the path of this upper low late
Friday through Saturday is in question, there is consensus amongst
the ensemble members that the system will generally be dry with
the best chances of any rain/snow in south central OR, the OR 
Cascades, and the Ochocos.

Behind the upper closed low passage late Saturday, ridging will
continue to build and strengthen over the region and northerly 
flow will advect a cold and dry airmass east of the Cascades 
through at least early Monday. Mean ensemble guidance is in 
fairly good agreement with the ridge strengthening through 
Sunday, with the 500mb clusters all showing an amplifying ridge.
Investigating the 500mb EOF patterns do show some uncertainty in
how quickly the ridge may build into the region, and how deep the
upper level troughs on either side of the ridge will dig.
Regardless, dry conditions, light winds, and cool temperatures
will prevail in the forecast from late Saturday through Sunday.

The next piece of uncertainty in the extended periods come in the
form of another upper low feature that approaches from the west.
Ensemble guidance is in some agreement that the approaching upper
low feature will weaken as it attempts to ride underneath the
upper ridge. In the ensemble mean guidance this feature is mostly
smoothed out, however, in the WPC ensemble cluster analysis some 
clusters do feature an upper low feature under the ridge. The EOF1
pattern for the late Sunday and Monday timeframe does indicate 
some uncertainty in the strength of the upper low. Knowing this,
there is still moderate confidence in this feature bringing a
chance of precipitation across the forecast area, so have kept in
the slight chance and chance precipitation chances of the NBM for
Monday. Lawhorn/82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  57  46  71 /  20  10  20  10 
ALW  46  59  48  71 /  20  10  20  20 
PSC  49  62  51  71 /  10   0  20  10 
YKM  40  59  42  65 /  20  10  20  30 
HRI  48  61  50  72 /  10  10  20  10 
ELN  39  55  41  62 /  20  20  40  40 
RDM  40  57  46  68 /  20  10  10  10 
LGD  40  54  42  64 /  30  20  20  10 
GCD  41  57  44  69 /  20  10  10   0 
DLS  50  60  52  68 /  40  20  30  40 

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....82
AVIATION...85

[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Northeastern Washington and Northern Idaho


505 
FXUS66 KOTX 270445
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
945 PM PDT Tue Oct 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds and rounds of rain and mountain snow will continue 
this week across the Inland Northwest. The north Cascades will 
likely receive several rounds of accumulating snow in the high 
terrain. Tuesday night will be windy across the Waterville 
Plateau, Columbia Basin, Palouse, and West Plains with gusts of 25
to 40 mph. Moderate precipitation and strong winds are likely 
Thursday into Friday. Small rises on many rivers and streams are 
expected into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM PDT Tue Oct 26 2021/ 

Tonight through Wednesday night: A band of showers associated with
a mid level wave will track into Eastern Washington and north
Idaho through early this evening. Behind this wave a strong 130kt
zonal jet will track over the region. With this strong jet coming
in this evening and overnight and lack of cold advection it will
be difficult for stronger winds to mix down into the valleys, but
the higher benches like the Waterville Plateau, West Plains, and
Palouse could see 30-40 MPH gusts. This is based on model sounding
data and high resolution wind models. Isolated higher gusts up to
45-50 MPH are possible on exposed ridges especially near the
Cascades. The strong westerly flow will also create upslope flow 
into the Cascade crest with an additional 3-5" of snow forecast 
above 4500 feet including Washington Pass. On Wednesday the jet 
lifts to the north but strong westerly flow and an abundance of
moisture below 700mb will keep showers persisting near the 
Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. For Wednesday night an 
atmospheric river begins to take aim at the area, with the best 
moisture and lift aimed at areas north of I-90 where rain and high
mountain snow is likely, with a chance of rain elsewhere. Snow is
likely for Washington and Sherman Passes, but may quickly change 
to rain Thursday morning and warmer air surges in behind a warm 
front. JW

Thursday and Thursday night: Moderate to heavy precipitation will 
continue through Thursday night over the Northern Cascades and 
through Friday morning over the northern Idaho Panhandle. QPF 
amounts will range from .75" to 1" in western Chelan and Okanogan 
counties to over 2" at the Cascade crest. Higher elevations of the 
northern Idaho Panhandle will see amounts around .75" to 1.5" 
inches. Recently burned areas such as the Cedar Creek and Cub Creek 
2 burn scars in Okanogan county, the 25 Mile burn scar in Chelan 
county, and the Trestle Creek Complex burn scar in Bonners county 
will possibly see mud and debris flows with this heavier 
preciptiation. As a result, a Flood Watch has been issued for these 
areas late Wednesday night through late Thursday night. Light to 
moderate precipitation will be possible elsewhere with 0.10" to .75" 
possible. However, a strong westerly flow aloft will create a decent 
rain shadow for the lee of the Cascades and the lower Columbia Basin 
with less than 0.10" of rain forecasted. 

In addition to the rain on Thursday, winds will be quite strong 
Thursday afternoon and evening. Deterministic models are in 
agreement that winds at 850 mb will be around 40 to 50 mph Thursday 
ahead of an approaching cold front. Model ensembles have this 
equating to strong sustained southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph coupled 
with gusts nearing 40 mph across the Columbia Basin into the Palouse 
and the Spokane area. 

Friday through Sunday: Precipitation will continue over the Idaho 
Panhandle Friday morning and afternoon as the cold front moves 
eastward. Cold and drier air behind the front will allow for 
temperatures to plummet Friday into the weekend with highs in the 
upper 40s and 50s. Clear skies overnight this weekend will also 
allow for widespread freezing temperatures across the Inland 
Northwest. vmt

AVIATION... 
06z TAFS: Light rain showers are moving through far northeast WA,
southeast WA, and the ID panhandle this evening with further
showers developing in the Cascades. Most of the ceilings in
eastern WA are at VFR levels or are expected to improve to VFR
within the next few hours as showers dissipate. Breezy southwest
winds will continue during the overnight hours which should help
lower the chances for low stratus/fog development behind the
departing precipitation. Winds will continue to be gusty through
Wednesday afternoon, gusts 30 to 35 mph are likely. /Dewey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  53  41  61  45  55 /  10   0  40  50  60  60 
Coeur d'Alene  40  51  41  57  45  53 /  60  10  40  60  70  70 
Pullman        41  51  39  61  44  53 /  60  20  30  40  50  70 
Lewiston       47  60  49  69  52  61 /  30  10  30  30  40  60 
Colville       38  53  33  54  38  54 /  30  10  50  80  60  50 
Sandpoint      39  48  36  51  43  51 /  70  10  60  90  80  70 
Kellogg        38  47  41  55  45  52 /  80  40  50  70  70  80 
Moses Lake     41  57  42  65  46  59 /   0  10  40  30  40  20 
Wenatchee      41  55  44  60  44  56 /  20  10  60  60  60  20 
Omak           38  56  39  54  39  55 /   0   0  60  80  50  20 

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flood Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night 
     for Northern Panhandle. 

WA...Flood Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening 
     for Central Chelan County-Western Chelan County-Western 
     Okanogan County. 


&&

$$

[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

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